Netanyahu Faces Uncertain Fate as Israel Votes in Tight Knesset Race

Israelis are heading to the polls on Tuesday, October 26, to elect their next government after three years of multi-front war. The election is widely expected to be a deadlock, with no single bloc projected to secure the 61 seats needed to form a majority in the 120-seat Knesset.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is seeking to retain his position by leading the right-wing and religious bloc. His campaign rests on two main arguments: only he can govern without relying on Israel’s Arab parties, and he needs more time to complete military operations in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran. President Donald Trump endorsed Netanyahu last week, warning that the United States might have to handle the Iran threat alone if the Israeli leader loses power.

Netanyahu’s camp is pushing a slogan that rhymes in Hebrew: "Either right wing or Palestine, either right wing or a nuclear bomb." Over the weekend, the prime minister shared an AI-generated image of a mushroom cloud over Tel Aviv on social media to emphasize the existential threat he says Iran poses. Benny Abraham, a restaurant owner in Tel Aviv, described Netanyahu as a charismatic global leader, calling him "the king of Israel."

Opposing Netanyahu is a diverse "change bloc" comprising Arab, left, center, and right parties united by a desire to end his tenure. The leading figure to potentially lead this bloc is Gadi Eisenkot, former military chief and leader of the centrist Yashar party. Eisenkot lost his son and two nephews in the war and served on the war cabinet alongside Netanyahu for the first year of the conflict. His party features a more balanced gender representation, with about half of its candidates being women.

Eisenkot is positioning himself as a unifying veteran who will launch a state inquiry into the intelligence failures that allowed the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack. He accused Netanyahu of using "fear-mongering, lies, and threats" in his campaign, specifically referencing the nuclear imagery. Uzi Aharoni, a 73-year-old engineer from Tel Aviv, said he views Eisenkot as the only honest alternative who will prioritize the people over his own family.

Voter turnout among Arab Israelis could be a deciding factor. This demographic makes up roughly 20% of the population and has faced social and political pressure from Netanyahu’s far-right allies in recent years. Jehad Abomoch, a cafe owner in the Arab city of Baqa al Gharbiya, said his community feels it has "no hope, no future" under the current government and is motivated to vote to prevent another coalition with those allies.

Two new parties focused on mandatory military service for ultra-Orthodox men are also in the race, hovering near the threshold for Knesset representation. Their entry could disrupt Netanyahu’s traditional support base. Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute, noted that if politicians stick to their promises and refuse to switch sides in a stalemate, the country will face another election.

Israel has a history of electoral deadlocks, having held five elections between 2019 and 2022. If neither bloc wins a majority, the change bloc could attempt to form a minority government if it secures more seats than the opposition, with Arab parties abstaining or voting in favor. Alternatively, weeks of negotiations could lead to a coalition, or the country may return to the polls again.