Voter math: 70,000 returning Israelis may decide Tuesday's Knesset race

An estimated 70,000 Israelis living abroad have returned to the country or are scheduled to arrive before Tuesday’s Knesset elections. The influx creates a potential variable in a contest that polls suggest may be decided by a narrow margin. While no precise count exists for the number of returnees, the volume is large enough to influence the final tally if the race remains close.

The impact of these voters depends on the threshold required to win a seat. In the 2022 elections, a candidate needed roughly 36,000 votes to secure one Knesset seat. Demographers and analysts project that population growth and higher turnout will push that requirement to between 38,000 and 39,000 votes this time. If the 70,000 returnees split their votes among parties, the difference could determine which bloc holds the balance of power.

Political preferences among the diaspora are difficult to predict with certainty. Some estimates indicate a lean toward the change bloc, but no reliable data exists to confirm a uniform voting pattern. Even if 60% of the returnees supported that bloc, the gain would amount to at most one to one-and-a-half seats. The final election results will determine whether this group tipped the scales in favor of one side or the other.

The arrival of these citizens is visible in the hospitality industry. Africa Israel Hotels reported a 23% increase in occupancy during election week compared to October of last year. Alex Eliyahu, the chain’s marketing director, noted that more Israelis are combining their trip with a short vacation. "We are seeing people exercising their democratic right with a short vacation," Eliyahu said.

Fattal Hotels also reported higher bookings, particularly in central Israel. Maya Shalev, the company’s vice president of marketing and sales, attributed the rise to the elections. The chain is offering discounts of up to 30% for stays from October 25 to 29, with an additional 10% off for members of its loyalty program. Shalev said that foreign bookings for those dates suggest many travelers are coming specifically to vote.

At the October Council rally in Tel Aviv on Saturday night, tens of thousands gathered in Hostages Square. Among the crowd were several diaspora voters. Judy, who has lived in the United States for more than 50 years, traveled from Miami to cast her ballot and will return home in early November. She said she is voting differently than many of her peers in Miami and Los Angeles. Ofer, from New York, stated his family flew in specifically for the vote and will leave the day after the election.

Not every traveler made it to the country on schedule. Flydubai canceled some flights following an attempted terrorist attack, stranding a number of Israelis abroad. One young man said the cancellations pushed flight prices to the Far East higher. Meanwhile, some Israelis who live in the country will be overseas on Election Day. Racheli, from Ramat Gan, booked a vacation in Vietnam nearly a year ago. "This will be the first time I don't vote. It breaks my heart," she said.